With just over three months remaining in the Premier League 2023/24 season, tensions are rising at the bottom of the table as teams fight to avoid relegation.

Currently, the three newly-promoted sides occupy the relegation positions. Sheffield United (20th) and Burnley (19th) are already eleven points adrift of safety after 26 matches, while Luton Town sits four points behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest after 25 games.

Forest is in a precarious position, having won just once in their last five matches. They are a point behind Brentford (16th) and Everton (15th), with the latter receiving a boost after their ten-point deduction for financial breaches was reduced to six earlier this week.

Who is Favored for Relegation?

Sheffield United - 1/20

The Blades are the overwhelming favorites to return to the Championship. According to BetFair Exchange, they have a 95.2% implied probability of relegation. With only three wins and an average of 0.85 goals scored per game while conceding 2.54, Sheffield United's fate appears sealed.

Failure to replace key players like Sander Berge and Iliman Ndiaye has significantly weakened the squad, leading to the sacking of Paul Heckingbottom in December following a poor start, including an 8-0 home defeat to Newcastle United.

Burnley - 3/20

Vincent Kompany's Burnley dominated the Championship last season, securing 101 points and losing just three matches. However, the Premier League has proved a far greater challenge, and they have spent most of the season in the bottom three.

Midnite places Burnley at 3/20 odds to be relegated, with an implied probability of 86.96%. Their attacking style of football, which worked well in the Championship, has left them vulnerable at the highest level.

Luton Town - 8/13

Midnite lists Luton Town at 8/13 odds, meaning a 61.5% chance of relegation. Unlike their fellow promoted teams, Luton has shown promise, remaining within reach of safety.

Strong performances at Kenilworth Road against Manchester City, Arsenal, and Tottenham, as well as a 1-1 draw against Liverpool, have provided hope. With Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris scoring a combined 16 goals in 25 matches, Luton has looked the most likely to escape the drop.

Nottingham Forest - 11/5

The two-time European Cup winners have 31.25% implied odds of relegation, according to Midnite.

The timing of the African Cup of Nations disrupted their squad, with key players like Ibrahim Sangare, Wily Boly, Ola Aina, Moussa Niakhate, and Serge Aurier unavailable. Forest has struggled since, winning only once in 2024. Injuries to returning players and upcoming fixtures, including a match against league leaders Liverpool, make survival uncertain.

Everton - 15/2

Everton received a lifeline when their points deduction was reduced from ten to six, moving them into 15th place. Without the penalty, they would sit 13th.

SkyBet has them at 15/2 odds for relegation (11.8% implied probability). While they possess more quality than the current bottom three, a poor run of form has raised concerns. Upcoming matches, starting with a crucial fixture against West Ham, will determine their fate.

Final Thoughts

Sheffield United and Burnley seem destined for relegation, while Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, and Everton remain in a tense battle to stay in the top flight. As the season nears its climax, every match will be crucial in deciding who stays up and who drops to the Championship.